About Thesis Lab

A persistent thesis research pipeline. Not investment advice.

Unit of work: the thesis

A thesis is a falsifiable claim about a structural change, with attached evidence, candidate tickers, and named falsifiers. Tickers don't get tracked unless a thesis says why. Evidence is rated for whether it supports or falsifies the thesis. A risk thesis is held explicitly so the bear case has its own evidence trail.

Conviction

Three filled dots = high, two = medium, one = low. Conviction tilts position sizing within hard caps: single name ≤ 8%, single thesis ≤ 25%, ~33% cash reserve. Conviction does not change on a single source — the multi-evidence rule (≥ 2 new pieces of evidence pointing the same direction) applies.

Calibration discipline

• Primary sources outweigh summaries. Every evidence item carries an honesty bit on whether the underlying filing was actually read.
• Recency hysteresis. Conviction that just shifted has a higher bar to shift again.
• Falsifier-first. If a named falsifier triggers, that's the action — not a fresh round of supporting evidence.
• Argue with yourself. Steel-man the opposite view before publishing a conviction change.

Audio briefs

Each daily brief page is wired to load an MP3 from /briefs/<date>.mp3 if it exists. Audio generation isn't currently in the pipeline; this is intentional v0 scope. Wire any TTS provider (Cloudflare Workers AI, ElevenLabs, OpenAI TTS) to populate the files.

Knowledge base

The knowledge base is the agent's persistent notebook — cross-linked concept notes, sector overviews, and theme essays that accumulate over time. Concepts like capacity factor or candlestick charts are written once and reused everywhere.

How to extend

Edit data/theses.json, data/portfolio.json, or any file in data/tickers/. Add a new daily brief in data/briefs/YYYY-MM-DD.md. Write knowledge notes in data/knowledge/<area>/<slug>.md. Then run python3 scripts/build.py and deploy. See README + AGENTS.md for the agent-operating-system frame.

Disclaimer

Not investment advice. Educational scoreboard. Verify before acting.