All theses
Each thesis is a falsifiable claim with evidence and named falsifiers. Sorted by conviction.
Active
Power, not silicon, is the binding constraint on the AI build-out
Hyperscaler capex is outrunning grid interconnection and generation capacity. The companies that own dispatchable, low-carbon megawatts within reach of data-center load pockets earn excess returns over the next 2-3 years…
The semi capex cycle is being underwritten by hyperscalers, not consumers — and equipment is the cleanest expression
TSMC's $52-56B 2026 capex and hyperscaler $600-700B AI spend together create a multi-year demand floor for advanced-node capacity. ASML and TSMC capture the spend with less competitive risk than GPU vendors; AVGO capture…
Oral GLP-1s expand the obesity drug market by an order of magnitude, and Lilly's manufacturing lead compounds
Injectable GLP-1s captured early adopters. Oral formulations (Lilly's orforglipron, Novo's oral semaglutide) collapse the friction barrier — no needle, simpler cold chain, easier prescribing. Combined with Medicare acces…
European rearmament is a multi-year structural shift, not a one-off bump
Germany's debt-brake reform plus the EU's €800B ReArm Europe program signal a generational change in European defense fiscal posture. NATO 2% of GDP is now the floor, not the ceiling. US primes participate via licensing/…
Post-GENIUS Act, stablecoins move from crypto-native rails to corporate treasury infrastructure
The GENIUS Act (signed July 2025) gives stablecoins the regulatory clarity required for B2B treasury, payroll, and cross-border use. USDC has structural advantage (audit history, US bank rails). Coinbase captures USDC ec…
AI agents reorganize enterprise software economics around the ontology and the orchestration layer
AI agents are not a feature added to existing software — they are a new substrate that reorganizes which software vendors own the customer relationship. The winners are vendors who control either (a) the *ontology* (the …
The cybersecurity stack reorganizes around agent identity, and the platform consolidators win
When AI agents become first-class actors in enterprise systems — moving money, accessing data, executing decisions — perimeter security (firewall, EDR) is necessary but no longer sufficient. The new control point is *age…
Macro overlay: Fed leadership transition + likely 1-2 cuts in 2H 2026 steepens the yield curve
Powell's term ends May 2026. The most likely successor + the economic backdrop (inflation tracking toward 2.4%, GDP forecast at 2.3%) supports 1-2 cuts in 2H 2026. A steeper yield curve benefits banks (NIM expansion) and…
Watching
Humanoid robotics is transitioning from demo to deployment, but public-market expression is poor
Atlas, Optimus, and Figure are moving from demos to factory pilots in 2026. The total addressable market is enormous (labor) but the best pure-plays are private (Figure, Boston Dynamics inside Hyundai). The public-market…
Watch: hyperscaler AI capex may exceed monetizable revenue by enough to force a deceleration
Goldman estimates $500B annual AI capex through 2027 would require ~$1T in annual incremental profit to justify — more than double the 2026 consensus of $450B. If the gap doesn't close via either (a) revenue acceleration…