Thesis Lab · 2026-05-20
A persistent stock thesis research pipeline.
A persistent thesis research pipeline. Not investment advice.
Latest brief · 2026-05-20
Day Two — the structure of the lab takes shape, and we lean further into CEG
Day Two
Two things happened in the last 48 hours that matter. The first: the lab itself reorganized around an explicit operating-system pattern — an agent at the core, deterministic tools at the edges, schemas as contracts, skills as the new form of code. That shows up on this site as multi-page navigation, per-ticker research files, a knowledge base, and an audit log of every change the agent makes to persistent state. If a future Claude or Codex session picks up this work cold, AGENTS.md is the single document that orients them.
The second: the portfolio is up 2.86% in 48 hours vs SPY +0.35%. That outperformance is real but means almost nothing yet — a 2-day window is noise, not signal. The interesting thing isn't the number, it's which positions drove it: CEG +7.4%, TLN +6.2%, VST +5.3%. The AI-power thesis (T001) is doing what it should be doing.
📚 Concept: candlestick charts. Mike, since you mentioned wanting to learn about these: a candlestick chart shows four prices per period (open, high, low, close) in a single shape. The body color tells you whether price closed above or below the open (green = up day, red = down day). The thin "wicks" above and below the body show how far price strayed from the body during the day. Long lower wicks at known support levels are often read as "rejection of the lows" — buyers stepped in. But for thesis work, don't over-read candles: a position's daily move is usually noise, not sign
Portfolio snapshot · 2026-05-20
Total value
$101,854.32
P&L
$1,854.32 (+2.86%)
Cash
$35,263.26
Deployed
65.38%
SPY benchmark
+0.35%
Theses
Ten falsifiable views. Conviction shown as filled dots; status as a pill. Click any to expand.
Power, not silicon, is the binding constraint on the AI build-out
Hyperscaler capex is outrunning grid interconnection and generation capacity. The companies that own dispatchable, low-carbon megawatts within reach of data-center load pockets ear…
4 positions · 24-36 months
The semi capex cycle is being underwritten by hyperscalers, not consumers — and equipment is the cleanest expression
TSMC's $52-56B 2026 capex and hyperscaler $600-700B AI spend together create a multi-year demand floor for advanced-node capacity. ASML and TSMC capture the spend with less competi…
4 positions · 12-24 months
Oral GLP-1s expand the obesity drug market by an order of magnitude, and Lilly's manufacturing lead compounds
Injectable GLP-1s captured early adopters. Oral formulations (Lilly's orforglipron, Novo's oral semaglutide) collapse the friction barrier — no needle, simpler cold chain, easier p…
1 positions · 24-36 months
European rearmament is a multi-year structural shift, not a one-off bump
Germany's debt-brake reform plus the EU's €800B ReArm Europe program signal a generational change in European defense fiscal posture. NATO 2% of GDP is now the floor, not the ceili…
2 positions · 36-60 months
Humanoid robotics is transitioning from demo to deployment, but public-market expression is poor
Atlas, Optimus, and Figure are moving from demos to factory pilots in 2026. The total addressable market is enormous (labor) but the best pure-plays are private (Figure, Boston Dyn…
1 positions · 36-60 months
Post-GENIUS Act, stablecoins move from crypto-native rails to corporate treasury infrastructure
The GENIUS Act (signed July 2025) gives stablecoins the regulatory clarity required for B2B treasury, payroll, and cross-border use. USDC has structural advantage (audit history, U…
1 positions · 12-24 months
Watch: hyperscaler AI capex may exceed monetizable revenue by enough to force a deceleration
Goldman estimates $500B annual AI capex through 2027 would require ~$1T in annual incremental profit to justify — more than double the 2026 consensus of $450B. If the gap doesn't c…
0 positions · 12-18 months
AI agents reorganize enterprise software economics around the ontology and the orchestration layer
AI agents are not a feature added to existing software — they are a new substrate that reorganizes which software vendors own the customer relationship. The winners are vendors who…
2 positions · 18-36 months
The cybersecurity stack reorganizes around agent identity, and the platform consolidators win
When AI agents become first-class actors in enterprise systems — moving money, accessing data, executing decisions — perimeter security (firewall, EDR) is necessary but no longer s…
2 positions · 12-24 months
Macro overlay: Fed leadership transition + likely 1-2 cuts in 2H 2026 steepens the yield curve
Powell's term ends May 2026. The most likely successor + the economic backdrop (inflation tracking toward 2.4%, GDP forecast at 2.3%) supports 1-2 cuts in 2H 2026. A steeper yield …
0 positions · 6-12 months
Recent activity
- other — v0.2.0 — agent-OS architecture, deep CEG research, 3 new theses, knowledge base, multi-page site, audio briefings, portfolio history.