NASDAQ · Information Technology · Semiconductor Equipment
ASML ASML Holding N.V.
As of 2026-05-20 · Veldhoven, Netherlands
Business summary
ASML is the sole producer of EUV (extreme ultraviolet) lithography systems — the most advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment in the world. Every leading-edge chip (3nm/2nm) made by TSMC, Intel, or Samsung passes through an ASML EUV system at multiple steps in the process. The newer High-NA EUV (with TWINSCAN EXE:5000 and EXE:5200) extends this monopoly to even more advanced nodes coming in 2026-2028. Beyond EUV, ASML has a strong DUV (deep ultraviolet) immersion business that competes with Canon and Nikon at trailing nodes.
The business is structural in two ways: (1) the technology lead is multi-decade (built on three decades of joint R&D with TSMC, Intel, Samsung, and IMEC), and (2) the order book provides 18-24 months of forward visibility. The risks are concentrated in geopolitics (export restrictions on China sales) and order-book volatility (semiconductor capex cycles can swing book-to-bill from 0.7 to 1.5 in a single year).
Connected theses
- T002 — The semi capex cycle is being underwritten by hyperscalers, not consumers — and equipment is the cleanest expression · core
Cleanest pick-and-shovel. Wins regardless of which foundry or fabless wins.
Key metrics
| EUV systems shipped 2025 | ~50 (estimate) Each system sells for €170-220M base + service. | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Order book | €38-42B (est) Visibility through 2027. | Q1 2026 |
| Gross margin | ~51-53% High-NA mix expansion is margin-accretive. | Recent quarters |
Valuation snapshot
| Price | $1,472.39 |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $580B |
| Forward P/E | 38.0× |
| EV / EBITDA | 28.0× |
| FCF yield | 2.3% |
Premium multiple reflects monopoly + High-NA optionality. Order-book visibility supports valuation.
Evidence
- secondary ASML market cap surpasses $500BMarket cap crossed $500B following TSMC capex raise to $52-56B.
- secondary High-NA EUV rampHigh-NA EUV deliveries to TSMC + Intel ramping in 2026; demand visibility into 2027.
Catalysts
- Q2 results — order book + High-NA mix high
What to watch: Order book composition, High-NA system count, China revenue trajectory
Falsifiers
- Book-to-bill <0.9 for two consecutive quarters
armed · Quarterly bookings vs revenue - Dutch/EU export rules expand to restrict additional advanced-node sales beyond China
armed · Dutch government announcements + EU regulations - Significant TSMC or Samsung capex cut
armed · Foundry capex guidance
Agent notes
Hold. The closest thing to a 'sell shovels in the gold rush' trade. Monopoly + multi-year visibility + High-NA optionality. The only meaningful risk to a multi-year hold is export controls escalating beyond current China scope.
Educational notes
📚 EUV lithography
Lithography is the step in chip-making that imprints circuit patterns onto silicon wafers, using light. As features shrink, the wavelength of the light has to shrink too — that's been the long arc of progress. EUV uses 13.5 nm wavelength light (vs 193 nm for DUV) generated by hitting tin droplets with a laser 50,000 times per second. Each system has ~100,000 components, takes years to build, and only ASML makes them. High-NA is the next generation, with a larger numerical aperture (NA) that resolves even finer features — making it possible to build chips at 2 nm and below in fewer process steps. This matters because every leading-edge chip — every NVIDIA H200, every Apple A18, every Google TPU — passes through ASML equipment.
Open questions
- High-NA throughput and yield in real production?
- Will Samsung's 2nm ramp drive incremental orders or be soaked by TSMC?