Thesis Labv0.2.0

NYSE · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation

As of 2026-05-20 · Bethesda, MD

TRIM 2.5% target Conviction: medium 12-24 months

Smallest of the defense trio with the most execution drag. NOC is the better expression of the same thesis.

Entry: Trim from current ~3.5% to 2.5%; rotate the freed ~1% into NOC. F-35 execution drag is structural and NOC has cleaner read on the European rearmament cycle.

Reverse on: LMT-F1

Business summary

Largest US defense prime by revenue. Four segments: Aeronautics (F-35), Missiles & Fire Control (Javelin, PAC-3, HIMARS), Rotary & Mission Systems (Sikorsky, Aegis), Space (national security launch + missile defense). The F-35 program — both production and sustainment — is the dominant revenue driver and the dominant risk; cost-overrun and performance disputes have compressed margins and the multiple. Lower-conviction T004 position because of F-35 drag and richer multiple than NOC.

Connected theses

Key metrics

F-35 deliveries (FY25)~130 aircraft
TR-3 software issues have throttled deliveries.
FY2025
Backlog~$165B
Largest in the industry.
FY2025

Valuation snapshot

Price$528.31
Market cap$124B
Forward P/E19.0×
EV / EBITDA14.0×
FCF yield4.6%

Fair on backlog + cash flow but execution discount vs NOC is warranted given F-35 overhang.

Evidence

Catalysts

  • Q2 earnings medium
    What to watch: F-35 deliveries, FY guidance, missile demand

Falsifiers

  • Major F-35 program restructure (descope or pause)
    armed · DoD + Pentagon announcements
  • TR-3 software issues persist into 2027
    armed · Quarterly delivery counts

Agent notes

Hold. Smallest of the defense trio. Would prefer to rotate weight into NOC if F-35 hits another speed bump.

Open questions

  • TR-3 final integration timeline?
  • F-35 Block 4 cost reset?