NYSE · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation
As of 2026-05-20 · Bethesda, MD
Business summary
Largest US defense prime by revenue. Four segments: Aeronautics (F-35), Missiles & Fire Control (Javelin, PAC-3, HIMARS), Rotary & Mission Systems (Sikorsky, Aegis), Space (national security launch + missile defense). The F-35 program — both production and sustainment — is the dominant revenue driver and the dominant risk; cost-overrun and performance disputes have compressed margins and the multiple. Lower-conviction T004 position because of F-35 drag and richer multiple than NOC.
Connected theses
- T004 — European rearmament is a multi-year structural shift, not a one-off bump · watching
Index hedge / smaller position. F-35 execution drag is real.
Key metrics
| F-35 deliveries (FY25) | ~130 aircraft TR-3 software issues have throttled deliveries. | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Backlog | ~$165B Largest in the industry. | FY2025 |
Valuation snapshot
| Price | $528.31 |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $124B |
| Forward P/E | 19.0× |
| EV / EBITDA | 14.0× |
| FCF yield | 4.6% |
Fair on backlog + cash flow but execution discount vs NOC is warranted given F-35 overhang.
Evidence
- secondary European rearmament + NATO 2% floorEuropean defense budgets +20% YoY supports F-35 export demand.
Catalysts
- Q2 earnings medium
What to watch: F-35 deliveries, FY guidance, missile demand
Falsifiers
- Major F-35 program restructure (descope or pause)
armed · DoD + Pentagon announcements - TR-3 software issues persist into 2027
armed · Quarterly delivery counts
Agent notes
Hold. Smallest of the defense trio. Would prefer to rotate weight into NOC if F-35 hits another speed bump.
Open questions
- TR-3 final integration timeline?
- F-35 Block 4 cost reset?