NYSE · Utilities · Independent Power Producers
VST Vistra Corp
As of 2026-05-20 · Irving, TX
Business summary
Vistra is the second-largest US competitive power generator after CEG (post-Calpine), with ~41 GW of capacity across natural gas, nuclear, coal (legacy), and a growing solar/storage portfolio. The 2024 acquisition of Energy Harbor added 4 GW of nuclear (Beaver Valley, Davis-Besse, Perry) to the existing Comanche Peak fleet. Vistra has the most direct read on ERCOT capacity scarcity of any major US generator — roughly half of its capacity is in Texas, the tightest data-center market in the country.
The model has two distinct legs: (1) Vistra Generation sells output into wholesale markets and increasingly under PPAs; (2) Vistra Retail (TXU Energy and others) serves ~5 million retail customer accounts. The retail platform is a natural hedge — when wholesale prices spike, retail margins compress, but the diversification dampens earnings volatility. The recent strategic narrative has centered on adding nuclear-attached SMR optionality (announced with Meta) and on positioning the gas fleet to capture rising ERCOT capacity prices.
Connected theses
- T001 — Power, not silicon, is the binding constraint on the AI build-out · core
Sized smaller than CEG because pure-play nuclear is less of the story; gas + retail mix dilutes the AI-power-PPA premium. But ERCOT exposure is the strongest in the universe.
Key metrics
| Total capacity | ~41 GW Second-largest US competitive generator. | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Nuclear fleet | 6.4 GW across 4 plants Comanche Peak (TX), Beaver Valley + Davis-Besse + Perry (Energy Harbor acquisition, 2024). | FY2025 |
| Retail customer accounts | ~5M TXU Energy + ambit + others. Natural hedge to wholesale prices. | FY2025 |
| Meta SMR option (Vistra site) | Up to 300 MW Optionality, not contracted output yet. SMR delivery realistic for early 2030s. | 2026-Q1 |
Valuation snapshot
| Price | $136.75 |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $47.5B |
| Forward P/E | 22.0× |
| EV / EBITDA | 11.5× |
| FCF yield | 4.2% |
Cheaper than CEG on every multiple — reflects less pure-play nuclear narrative + coal overhang. But pricing in ERCOT scarcity is similar. Reasonable risk/reward.
Evidence
- Energy Harbor merger closed March 2024; added Beaver Valley (1.8 GW), Davis-Besse (0.9 GW), Perry (1.3 GW) — quadrupling the nuclear fleet.
- Meta secured option for 300 MW SMR at one of Vistra's existing sites — part of broader 6.6 GW Meta procurement.
- Texas Energy Fund provided low-interest loans for new dispatchable generation; ERCOT capacity scarcity well-documented.
Catalysts
- Q2 2026 earnings high
What to watch: ERCOT capacity revenue trajectory, retail margin trends, Meta SMR commentary
Falsifiers
- Coal retirement schedule accelerates significantly (would impair near-term EBITDA)
armed · 10-K disclosures + earnings commentary - ERCOT capacity market reform reduces scarcity rents
armed · PUCT proceedings, ERCOT capacity-related rule changes - Meta SMR option lapses or migrates to a competitor
armed · Meta + Vistra press releases
Agent notes
Hold. Vistra is the right secondary to CEG for T001 — cheaper, more ERCOT-leveraged, but less pure expression of the hyperscaler-PPA premium. The Meta SMR option is optionality, not income. Watch ERCOT-specific catalysts (capacity reform debates in TX legislature, PUCT actions).
Educational notes
📚 ERCOT vs PJM
ERCOT (Texas) is a unique US power market because it's electrically isolated from the rest of the country — limited transmission to other grids. This means ERCOT prices are set entirely by Texas supply and demand, with no relief from neighboring regions. ERCOT also uses an 'energy-only' market design (no capacity payments, unlike PJM) — generators are paid only for actual electricity sold. That means scarcity drives prices high during peak hours but generators bear the full risk of low-demand periods. The Texas Energy Fund was created to subsidize new dispatchable generation that wouldn't pencil in pure energy-only economics.
Open questions
- What's the actual MW-weighted age of the coal fleet and retirement plan?
- How much of the retail business is contracted vs. spot-exposed?
- What is the realistic timeline + cost basis for the Meta SMR option?